Lengthy clinical trials of new procedures involving new technologies are also starting to fall apart under pressure from the tsunami of innovation. Either a way must be found for accelerating innovation to be factored into clinical trials, or clinical trials must themselves be accelerated. The latter may be easier, through systems biology modeling.

A “robot scrub nurse” about to be tested at a New York hospital is in some ways equivalent to the early robot arms in manufacturing plants. Toyota was one of the first to adopt robotic arms, and its vision helped make it the world leader in vehicle manufacturing. So when it says it will now employ humanoids to do the “finish work” in its plans — replacing humans entirely — in its factories, it would be foolish not to pay attention. Those humanoids will find their way into US, European, and Korean car plants, too. China’s cheap labor will no longer be the big advantage it now has. Toyota is not alone: Canon has also decided to move towards complete automation at its domestic (Japanese) manufacturing plants, suggesting that outsourcing to China and other countries where labor is cheaper is temporary. The question of who will be able to afford to consume the robots’ output, when most humans will be out of work, has yet to be addressed.

As we are running out of jobs we are also running out of energy. Energy shortages will be a major and accelerating problem for the next five or six years, until economically viable alternatives to oil, coal, and (perhaps) nuclear power kick in.

Robosapien, the best-selling toy this past Christmas, is already obsolete. Its maker has announced improved versions of the robot to arrive in stores in February. Consumer groups have expressed anger at the announcement.

Reference: Jackson, Russell (2004). “Christmas robot toy will be out of date by February.” The Scotsman, December 13.

Medical Technologies Advance Faster Than the Trials that Study Them

The disagreement over the virtues of virtual (radiological) versus traditional (optical) colonoscopy in polyp and cancer detection remains unresolved as the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) recently terminated early (less than a quarter of the way through) a study which, at its inception, used four- and eight-slice CT scanners and primarily 2-D imaging software. These were the most advanced technologies available at the beginning of the trial in 2000, but were already outdated when the trial was halted. Today’s 16-, 32-, and 64-slice scanners and 3-D renderings would likely produce better results for virtual colonoscopy in any future trials, but then again, these too could be outdated well before any study could complete.

Reference: Advisory Board “Technology Watch” (subscription service), January 3, 2005. “Traditional colonoscopy bests virtual technology in latest comparative study.”

Robot Scrub Nurse

A surgeon at New York-Presbyterian Hospital is working with engineers to build a robotic scrub nurse, the nurse who hands surgical tools to the surgeon in the operating room. “Penelope,” as the robot has been named, will assist in a benign cyst removal procedure in March. Penelope’s ability to keep track of tools should mean no more forceps left behind inside a patient.

The robot recognizes and follows voice commands. It uses a magnet to pick up tools from its tray to then deposit on the table next to the surgeon. When the surgeon replaces a tool on the table, Penelope automatically picks it up and returns it to the tray. If the surgeon places something on the table that is not a tool, Penelope ignores it. The robot can currently recognize and distinguish among 12 tools and will soon be able to recognize twice that many.

Reference: Santora, Marc (2005). “For Surgery, an Automated Helping Hand.” New York Times, January 18.

Toyota to Hire Robots

Toyota plans to employ humanoid robots at its 12 factories in Japan to cut costs and deal with a looming labour shortage as the country ages. It already has nearly 4,000 robot systems for welding, painting, and other tasks. The androids will be used in more complex work, such as installation of seats and car interior fixtures. Without saying when, a Toyota spokesman told a Japanese newspaper “We aim to reduce production costs to the levels in China.”

Reference: Unknown (2005). “Toyota to employ robots.” AFP via News24.com, January 6.

Job Losses to Mount

Canon Inc. will install unmanned manufacturing lines in its domestic manufacturing plants by 2008, accounting for 25 percent of the value of its domestic output. Five thousand workers will be affected. Canon decided on unmanned manufacturing lines after judging that shifting some production lines to China “won’t be a final solution” to cutting costs because pay there will eventually rise due to the country’s economic development, a company official said.

Reference: Unknown (2004). “Canon to robotize 25% of output.” Japan Times, November 23.

End of Oil

A leading oil researcher believes that by 2019, global oil production will drop to 90 percent of current rates, but we will have marshaled sufficient alternative energy sources by then because, by 2010, soaring energy needs will demand them.

The forecast is based on the following evidence:

• Crude oil prices have doubled since 2001, but oil companies have increased their budgets for exploring new oil fields by only a small fraction.
• U.S. refineries are working close to capacity, yet no new refinery has been constructed since 1976.
• Oil tankers are fully booked, but outdated ships are being decommissioned faster than new ones are being built.
• Saudi Arabia announced on March 6, 2003 that it could not produce more oil in response to the Iraq War.
• Globally, according to some estimates, we have discovered 94 percent of all available oil.

Until at least 2010, however, we will have to make do with a big-time return to coal and nuclear power plants.

Reference: Williams, Mark (2005). “The End of Oil?” Technology Review, February.